The Roots of Innovation

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Decades of research in social psychology have captured the surprising ability of people to “read” one another. In contexts as different as evaluating classroom teachers, selecting job applicants or concluding jury deliberations, human judgments are made on the basis of extremely thin slices of observational data. Across a wide range of studies, psychologists find that research subjects on average accurately predict outcomes in such pursuits 70% of the time. That success rate holds when predicting end results occurring days, weeks or even months later.How is this possible? My theory [...]